strategy.scenario-planning
- Skill ID:
strategy.scenario-planning - Name: Scenario planning
- Version: 1.0.0
- Admission state: pending
- Fabric source commit:
8eb3784b2a9fa5c6f3bb1115d6da44358e45916f - Admission ref:
contracts/acp/skills/faithfulness/admissions/strategy.scenario-planning_supported_claims.json - Admission digest:
sha256:0666d4d6e4a5bd6787b8206f80c2d0188f7eb3c3130729e26c93f582c416648b
Declared metadata
purpose
not declared by the Fabric artifact
trigger
not declared by the Fabric artifact
inputs
not declared by the Fabric artifact
outputs
not declared by the Fabric artifact
risk
not declared by the Fabric artifact
model
not declared by the Fabric artifact
locale
not declared by the Fabric artifact
changelog
not declared by the Fabric artifact
deprecation
not declared by the Fabric artifact
support
not declared by the Fabric artifact
Normative statements
ssp-src-1 (sourced)
The systematic collection of insights on emerging trends and weak signals of change to identify potential threats, risks and opportunities.
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "futures-tools-at-a-glance",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-tools-horizon-scanning"
}
ssp-src-2 (sourced)
Compelling stories about a range of different possible futures that helps people understand what it feels like to live there and what this will mean for you, your stakeholders and your policy or strategy.
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "futures-tools-at-a-glance",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-tools-scenarios"
}
ssp-src-3 (sourced)
Create four scenarios using the Scenarios tool
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "pathway-4-testing-policy-options",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-pathway-4-steps"
}
ssp-src-4 (sourced)
Test the policies against all scenarios
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "policy-stress-testing-steps",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-policy-stress-testing"
}
ssp-src-5 (sourced)
This foresight study explores possible and necessary changes in the European social and economic systems as the European Union engages in managing sustainability transitions towards 2050.
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "publication-summary",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133716",
"source_section_ref": "jrc-study-focus"
}
ssp-src-6 (sourced)
The study builds on a participatory foresight exercise, which generated four foresight scenarios for a climate-neutral EU in 2050.
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "publication-summary",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133716",
"source_section_ref": "jrc-participatory-foresight"
}
ssp-src-7 (sourced)
Based on each scenario, a corresponding transition pathway was co-created and analysed through the process.
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "publication-summary",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133716",
"source_section_ref": "jrc-transition-pathways"
}
ssp-src-8 (sourced)
The outputs can also serve as input to policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting new participatory exercises on sustainability transitions.
Source references:
{
"source_clause": "publication-summary",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133716",
"source_section_ref": "jrc-policy-input"
}
ssp-der-1 (derived)
Start the scenario cycle with a broad scan for trends and weak signals, then turn the findings into a small set of distinct, plausible futures that stakeholders can understand.
ssp-der-2 (derived)
Test every important option against every selected future, record where it is robust or needs adaptation, and keep the scenario logic unchanged during the test.
ssp-der-3 (derived)
For a transition programme, pair each future with a co-created pathway and preserve the assumptions, choices and analysis that connect the pathway to that future.
ssp-der-4 (derived)
Use the scenario outputs as a reusable input for the next planning cycle, and record which participants and evidence would need to be revisited when the context changes.
Admission reviewer record
{
"governance": {
"admission_lane": "independent_review",
"review_lane": "independent_review",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewed_by": "codex",
"source_evidence_pins": {
"jrc-133716-sustainability-transitions": {
"evidence_ref": "contracts/acp/skills/faithfulness/source_evidence/jrc-133716-sustainability-transitions.json",
"snapshot_digest": "sha256:debd0a57968cb22ddf61bd39ff3ea80c5437329620e442dd1b9f2c8fa321353d",
"source_ref": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133716"
},
"uk-futures-toolkit-2024": {
"evidence_ref": "contracts/acp/skills/faithfulness/source_evidence/uk-futures-toolkit-2024.json",
"snapshot_digest": "sha256:7f14198c5d83bc10f97b6a161d99e36beb834df8887d8943c5862b42f9f0f426",
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}
}
},
"reviewer_verdicts": [
{
"evidence_span": "The systematic collection of insights on emerging trends and weak signals of change to identify potential threats, risks and opportunities.",
"evidence_span_digest": "sha256:342ceeeab16053c739b7c367de7e4e885b4f8525d1dd83c6ab97050dd179905c",
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"section_digest": "sha256:3e65f43b5c65e811fb3270bea9cc0b194e3236315606137e10eae6455a72b853",
"source_clause": "futures-tools-at-a-glance",
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"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-tools-horizon-scanning",
"source_snapshot_digest": "sha256:7f14198c5d83bc10f97b6a161d99e36beb834df8887d8943c5862b42f9f0f426",
"statement_digest": "sha256:342ceeeab16053c739b7c367de7e4e885b4f8525d1dd83c6ab97050dd179905c",
"statement_id": "ssp-src-1",
"statement_text": "The systematic collection of insights on emerging trends and weak signals of change to identify potential threats, risks and opportunities.",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
"evidence_span": "Compelling stories about a range of different possible futures that helps people understand what it feels like to live there and what this will mean for you, your stakeholders and your policy or strategy.",
"evidence_span_digest": "sha256:91df35ff77993cf92055a300e62fc0003a32e04f6c4a93fb85d95b9e90d58d31",
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"section_digest": "sha256:66a7146f9162fea8bdc9b1aafce5fa356b1909810f1ea51a05dc1f509b9681ae",
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"source_section_ref": "futures-tools-scenarios",
"source_snapshot_digest": "sha256:7f14198c5d83bc10f97b6a161d99e36beb834df8887d8943c5862b42f9f0f426",
"statement_digest": "sha256:91df35ff77993cf92055a300e62fc0003a32e04f6c4a93fb85d95b9e90d58d31",
"statement_id": "ssp-src-2",
"statement_text": "Compelling stories about a range of different possible futures that helps people understand what it feels like to live there and what this will mean for you, your stakeholders and your policy or strategy.",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
"evidence_span": "Create four scenarios using the Scenarios tool",
"evidence_span_digest": "sha256:073b26deecdb3644fd886b19276e7b5858086f7d8458a3bba947e1cee80f79ee",
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"section_digest": "sha256:e211d1b7dcac3cc6aacc2fe257b4024a1cac64a6a38e337736036de561480e10",
"source_clause": "pathway-4-testing-policy-options",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-pathway-4-steps",
"source_snapshot_digest": "sha256:7f14198c5d83bc10f97b6a161d99e36beb834df8887d8943c5862b42f9f0f426",
"statement_digest": "sha256:073b26deecdb3644fd886b19276e7b5858086f7d8458a3bba947e1cee80f79ee",
"statement_id": "ssp-src-3",
"statement_text": "Create four scenarios using the Scenarios tool",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
"evidence_span": "Test the policies against all scenarios",
"evidence_span_digest": "sha256:8275390c966615383604387ff2b30f45f8016ab11f0d0bae965bf874ea06c102",
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"section_digest": "sha256:53185ff93b57d7a034fe4839580b82870ce2a574edd431de7e3898a960904268",
"source_clause": "policy-stress-testing-steps",
"source_page": "web",
"source_ref": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html",
"source_section_ref": "futures-policy-stress-testing",
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"statement_digest": "sha256:8275390c966615383604387ff2b30f45f8016ab11f0d0bae965bf874ea06c102",
"statement_id": "ssp-src-4",
"statement_text": "Test the policies against all scenarios",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
"evidence_span": "This foresight study explores possible and necessary changes in the European social and economic systems as the European Union engages in managing sustainability transitions towards 2050.",
"evidence_span_digest": "sha256:b025775ce1d5ac6e54d8c86ec4145bc1e0ad7105f01cbfbd2ef094823d01a9f6",
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"section_digest": "sha256:868e8f518de4c432278451b5b0a27db4c693a6ecf864e3b838fed9c7f0b9c6bd",
"source_clause": "publication-summary",
"source_page": "web",
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"source_section_ref": "jrc-study-focus",
"source_snapshot_digest": "sha256:debd0a57968cb22ddf61bd39ff3ea80c5437329620e442dd1b9f2c8fa321353d",
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"statement_id": "ssp-src-5",
"statement_text": "This foresight study explores possible and necessary changes in the European social and economic systems as the European Union engages in managing sustainability transitions towards 2050.",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
"evidence_span": "The study builds on a participatory foresight exercise, which generated four foresight scenarios for a climate-neutral EU in 2050.",
"evidence_span_digest": "sha256:87514b3fa55189881864313e8752299b1a985aebc302e98c206375b1ab48a7a2",
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"section_digest": "sha256:78cb97a4793e87022636eccd885fa5ae5b607df0cee168eb1ffcccd38920ec30",
"source_clause": "publication-summary",
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"source_ref": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133716",
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"statement_text": "The study builds on a participatory foresight exercise, which generated four foresight scenarios for a climate-neutral EU in 2050.",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
"evidence_span": "Based on each scenario, a corresponding transition pathway was co-created and analysed through the process.",
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"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
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"statement_text": "Based on each scenario, a corresponding transition pathway was co-created and analysed through the process.",
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{
"evidence_span": "The outputs can also serve as input to policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting new participatory exercises on sustainability transitions.",
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"reviewer_id": "codex",
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"statement_text": "The outputs can also serve as input to policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting new participatory exercises on sustainability transitions.",
"support_relation": "direct_quote"
},
{
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"ssp-src-1",
"ssp-src-2",
"ssp-src-3"
],
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"statement_digest": "sha256:79a58944f43e742806dfc9973bbbcda31ca36edb6c2bb73b6df2a8cac82737a1",
"statement_id": "ssp-der-1",
"statement_text": "Start the scenario cycle with a broad scan for trends and weak signals, then turn the findings into a small set of distinct, plausible futures that stakeholders can understand."
},
{
"derived_from_statement_ids": [
"ssp-src-2",
"ssp-src-4"
],
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"statement_digest": "sha256:721b67a90fb79680698a3acfea6f21a6f9881787aff5d5641c151ee521d420e7",
"statement_id": "ssp-der-2",
"statement_text": "Test every important option against every selected future, record where it is robust or needs adaptation, and keep the scenario logic unchanged during the test."
},
{
"derived_from_statement_ids": [
"ssp-src-5",
"ssp-src-6",
"ssp-src-7"
],
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"statement_digest": "sha256:5a0eea176ccab4f8dd0c208b3b2e0740312a798e84bfc591391bb1cc607a5e43",
"statement_id": "ssp-der-3",
"statement_text": "For a transition programme, pair each future with a co-created pathway and preserve the assumptions, choices and analysis that connect the pathway to that future."
},
{
"derived_from_statement_ids": [
"ssp-src-6",
"ssp-src-8"
],
"outcome": "supported",
"reviewed_at": "2026-08-18T17:29:33Z",
"reviewer_id": "codex",
"statement_digest": "sha256:9daba629b193f3feda701e83eb9757d4b229c5ecf9829ec17ee731118d2505ec",
"statement_id": "ssp-der-4",
"statement_text": "Use the scenario outputs as a reusable input for the next planning cycle, and record which participants and evidence would need to be revisited when the context changes."
}
]
}
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